by Erez Linn
Middle East Media Research Institute founder Yigal Carmon is disappointed with the U.S. for joining Russia in support of Iran's regional expansion
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"Iran won't stand by
and allow Saudi Arabia to take a bite out
of its growing regional
power," says Yigal Carmon
Photo: AP
"Wherever
there is a clash between peoples, cultures, states, religions or
perceptions, the best way to understand the resulting conflict and to
resolve it is to go back to the primary texts," says Yigal Carmon, the
president and founder of MEMRI, the Middle East Media Research
Institute, which translates media broadcasts and articles from Arabic,
Turkish, Farsi and other languages into English with the aim of giving
the West a real-time glimpse into the Arab and Muslim world's attitudes.
Contrary to
what many may think, MEMRI is not in the business of clearing a path
for any particular leader, nor does it take any ideological stance –
though Carmon himself has very clear views on current affairs.
"MEMRI is a
concept, an idea," he says. "We study the media to understand the
present, and we study textbooks to understand the future. ... Hundreds
of universities make use of our services, because without knowing the
language, they lose out on a primary source material that is critical for academic work."
Carmon
recalls how Bernard Lewis, considered one of the world's leading Middle
East scholars, fruitlessly tried to warn the CIA that Iran's shah was
about to be overthrown by the ayatollahs in 1979.
"He got his
hands on a book written by the Ayatollah Khomeini shortly before the
latter returned to Iran," Carmon says. "He [Lewis] realized that this
was a prelude to the revolution and presented the contents of the book
to them, but the intelligence agency just said, 'Who is this guy
[Khomeini] in Paris? Total nonsense.' Not too long after that, there was
a revolution."
Carmon
takes pride in the fact that he studies the Arab and Muslim world from
"Marrakesh to Bangladesh." The institute has received many accolades
over the years, and Lewis himself has called it the most important
development in the study of the Middle East in a long time. Others have
said that if an institute like MEMRI had existed before World War II,
and Hitler's plans had been translated in real time, the threat he posed
might have been realized earlier and the war, and the Holocaust, could
have been prevented.
These days,
Carmon is chiefly troubled by Iran, but not just because of what is
happening in Tehran. He is also concerned about the secret agreements
being struck in Washington and in Moscow, which he says are helping the
ayatollahs' regime (the "Shiite ISIS" as he refers to it) to corner
Israel.
"We are
being sold out completely," he warns, referring to reports that the two
superpowers have reached understandings about Syria that completely
disregard Israel's demand to keep Iran away from its borders. "[U.S.
President Donald] Trump made a deal with the Russians that makes Iran's
presence legitimate in all of Syria, even very close to our border.
That's even more critical than the nuclear agreement [with Iran]."
Carmon says
that "the Russian-Iranian alliance poses an existential threat to
Israel. Russia has made itself a true enemy of Israel and we need to
wake up and understand that. They may have nothing against us, but they
are allied with Iran and they use it as a proxy against the U.S. since
they are painfully inferior to America, militarily and in every other
way. The U.S. is their [Russia's] rival; the harm suffered by Israel
means nothing to them."
But he says the U.S., which could have set boundaries, opted instead to cooperate with Russia.
"Israel is
facing a historical challenge. The president of the United States has
just joined the Russian-Iranian alliance, and by striking an agreement
with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, he has essentially greenlighted
an Iranian military deployment along Israel's border, despite knowing
Iran's express intentions to annihilate Israel. This is an existential
threat for Israel that outweighs the nuclear threat, which has yet to
reach the practical stage," he said.
In this
context, he notes that after Russia assumed an active role in the civil
war in Syria, MEMRI started studying the Russian media as well, for the
first time since the institute was founded in 1998.
Q: How do you respond to the claims that what you choose to highlight is biased and selective?
"The claim
that we post only the negative things from the Arab world is completely
false. We have made the voices of hundreds of [Arab and Muslim]
reformists and liberals heard in the entire world, and particularly in
the West where they weren't well known. After the attacks of Sept. 11,
2001, and considering what is currently happening in the Arab world,
obviously the difficult aspects we've exposed reflected reality. Reality
exploded.
"Unlike
many other research institutes in the world, we avoid making
recommendations. We present the reality as it is, we don't make
suggestions."
Q: Was there a document you translated that actually changed the reality?
"We are
helping Western countries defend themselves from terrorist attacks. One
of many examples is when we reported a young man who was viciously
inciting online to the Belgian authorities. He was consequently
arrested, and in his home they found chainsaws that he and his friends
were planning to use in an attack at a supermarket.
"We inform
governments and legislatures about the reality of the Arab and Muslim
world so as to improve their decision-making. However, we are well aware
that quite often in history, political and military decisions aren't
based on an objective analysis of reality; there are always leaders'
values and judgment calls in play, for better or worse."
Carmon
stresses that his organization's purpose is not to shape policy
("Research institutes tend to serve a political stance, and that's a
tragedy," he says), but exclaims that he does not intend to stand idly
by in the face of the mistakes he feels are being made on the Iran
issue.
Q: I get the feeling that you do not support the nuclear agreement with Iran.
"The
nuclear agreement fails to serve the purpose for which it was drafted,
and that is a fact. The nuclear agreement was meant to prevent Iran from
developing nuclear weapons. For example, under the terms of the deal,
8.5 tons of enriched uranium were transferred to Russia. Where is the
uranium today? It has disappeared. Former President [Barack] Obama's
appointee Stephen Mull testified as much to Congress. The International
Atomic Energy Agency also has no idea where it is.
Theoretically, since
no one can say where it is, it is possible that it is back in Iran."
According
to Carmon, as Trump himself has said, Iran is violating not only the
spirit of the agreement but also its stipulations. Even the IAEA has
noted that since the nuclear agreement was reached, Iran has twice
exceeded the amount of heavy water it is permitted to possess. After it
was found out, the water was transferred to Oman, which, according to
Carmon, is not capable of storing it independently.
"Oman is a
satellite of Iran. It has no military capability. It is completely at
the mercy of Iran. Storing Iran's heavy water there, as though it had
been removed from Iran, is fundamentally ridiculous. It clearly
demonstrates what kind of agreement this is. They could have transferred
it to the Netherlands or to Canada or to Brazil. Storing it in Oman is
no different than keeping it in Iran itself."
Q: Are you claiming that Iran's Revolutionary Guards are in Oman?
"They
wouldn't leave something like this unattended. And if they are watching
it, then it violates the very foundation of the agreement because Iran
is essentially still holding on to it."
Carmon
lists a host of special procedural clauses that basically comprise a
very comfortable agreement for Iran, unprecedented in its flexibility,
ultimately allowing Iran to press ahead with its nuclear program by way
of special protocols that only have the appearance of restrictions.
"The
supposed oversight mechanism meant to be monitoring Iran's activity is a
complete system of deception. The only thing that mattered was pushing
the deal through."
He says there is no proof that Iran complied with the deal's stipulation that it decommission the nuclear facility in Arak.
"They
poured concrete into the pipes leading to the core of the reactor. The
IAEA came out with a declaration that they had sealed the core, but the
Iranians claim that they didn't pour concrete into the core."
Q: What about the monitoring mechanisms included in the agreement?
"They
pulled a shocking ruse. Ostensibly, there is a stringent monitoring
regiment in place, with cameras and everything. But only in sites that
Iran itself declared as nuclear facilities. There are six or seven of
them. Everywhere else, particularly military sites where the IAEA knows
they developed military nuclear devices in the past, is not under any
kind of supervision."
Q: But if Iran refuses to allow
inspectors to visit suspicious sites, the powers' special committee can
declare Iran in violation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231,
which adopted the agreement, and the sanctions will be automatically
reimposed.
"Some
people argue that, yes. But keep in mind that in the joint committee,
anyone making a complaint must present their case and reveal their
sources. Say America, or Israel, have secret sources, which lead them to
file a complaint. Under the deal, they have to reveal the source to the
Iranians. Does that seem reasonable? To expose them? And even after the
exposure, Iran is given weeks [time for the inspectors to actually
arrive at the site] to prepare. This is a mechanism that was designed to
protect Iran. IAEA chief Yukiya Amano is working in the service of
Iran, Russia and China. It is a role he was forced into by the Obama
administration and its efforts to make sure this deal was passed, at any
cost. Amano is lying when he says he can monitor any site. The Iranians
openly forbid it and he doesn't even try."
So fearing
Iran and feeling disappointed in the American position, Carmon actually
pins his long-term hopes on the moderate Arab world, which he believes
will ultimately wake up, after resolving its war with ISIS and its
internal conflicts, and stop Iran from becoming a hegemon in the region.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's recent bold actions, enacting
internal reforms as well as coming out against Hezbollah in Lebanon, is
an encouraging sign. The Arab Spring, too, despite its many failures,
has yet to make its final appearance, Carmon forecasts.
But when
asked whether Iran, like Russia, can be viewed as a stabilizing force in
the region, at least for now, he rejects the assertion out of hand.
"That was
Obama's thinking. He stood by the 10% of Muslims who are Shiite, instead
of the 90% who are Sunni. He told the Saudis that they need to share
their power with Iran. A realistic leader would never put his money on
the 10% against the 90%. I am extremely worried that President Trump's
administration is now following in Obama's disastrous footsteps."
Q: The fact is that in Syria, Iran and Russia did manage to stabilize the situation.
"But is
that the end of the story? Let's take things one step at a time.
Sometimes, when a minority clearly deserves help in comparison with the
majority, there is room for moral considerations and not just pure
realism. But that is not the case here. In the Sunni camp, we are seeing
important shifts. Mohammed bin Salman is coming out against the
religious traditions that have made the region violent. Iran, on the
other hand, is a Shiite Islamic country – there is no difference between
Iran and ISIS other than that Iran is Shiite. Iran is also extremely
ambitious, seeking to impose its rule on others. The number of people
that the Iranian regime has murdered during its reign, including the
murder of intellectuals, is very high. In 2009, they murdered people on
the streets as they protested against election fraud. This regime is
actively engaged in exporting and spreading the revolution."
Q: Do you think there is still hope for the Arab Spring?
"It's a
matter of hundreds of years and it will develop very slowly, as in
Europe, because it involves value shifts that generally take
generations. There is always hope that human beings will advance from
carnage to culture, but it can't happen in less time than it took
Europe. Look at how Europe was at constant war until the middle of the
last century, World War II. I am most encouraged by the fact that the
first course of action by the Saudi heir to the throne was to arrest
thousands of inciting religious figures. He went against what has been
the foundation of Saudi legitimacy since the country's inception, and
then he went on to advance women's rights, something that had been
unheard of in the kingdom's history. He went against anyone who
threatens his rule, and now he is openly confronting Iran, Iraq and
Hezbollah in Lebanon.
"There's a phrase in spoken
Arabic that says, 'He carries the ladder sideways' – when you walk like
that, you amass more and more enemies. He believes in his power and he
has the makings of a leader, like Mustafa Kemal Ataturk [the founder of
modern Turkey] had, of a man who is willing to stand up to the religious
fanatics, who have destroyed the Islamic world everywhere."
Alongside
his optimism at the hints of Saudi reform, Carmon fears that Iran will
not just sit by and allow the Saudi kingdom take a bite out of its
growing regional power.
"Here is a
possible scenario for the next war: The Iranians, unable to come to
terms with losing the civil war in Yemen [where they support the Shiite
Houthi rebels], will draw out the Shiites in Bahrain and Lebanon. There
is certainly a threat that Hezbollah will spark a provocation in
Lebanon. Like in 2006, when Iran needed a flare up to divert attention
from its nuclear file that was about be taken over by the Security
Council, so they used Hezbollah to generate a provocation on our
northern border.
"Strategically
speaking, this war – even if Israel is dragged into it by way of
Hezbollah and Syrian provocations – will actually be a clash between
Iran and Saudi Arabia, reflecting a historic, religious, geopolitical
and ethnic confrontation between the two. But of course Iran will make
every effort to bring us into the mix to generate an international
effect."
Carmon has
no qualms about criticizing the platforms he uses to access the Arab
world – social media and, generally speaking, the internet as a whole.
According to him, the puppet masters behind the internet platforms are
far more concerned with profits than with combating incitement.
"The global
jihad has developed in unimaginable terms since the introduction of the
internet. The internet is responsible for making individuals and small
groups into a global movement that is not tied together by any
organization but rather by common ideology. The ones who gave rise to
this terrible thing that changed our lives are the internet giants,
particularly the social networks. Alongside their innumerable
advantages, they are also destroying the world. It is comparable to
developing an atom bomb without neutralizing the dangers it poses. And
it is all done out of greed. I think their influence is nothing short of
criminal. Mark Zuckerberg [founder of Facebook] said that when someone
posts about wanting to commit suicide, the network takes action to find
them. But what about when someone wants to kill not himself but you?
That doesn't interest the network nearly as much."
Q: It is said that journalists write the first draft of history. Is MEMRI formulating the first draft of analysis of history?
"We are
very popular in Arab countries. Countless spokespeople mention our work,
be it liberals who mention us positively or Muslim radicals who suffer
from our exposure. North African religious scholar of the 13th century
Bahyey Ibn Pekuda once said that a little light can repel much of the
darkness and a little truth can drive away a lot of falsehood.
Sometimes, I feel that he was talking about the kind of work that MEMRI
does."
Erez Linn
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/2017/11/17/israels-actual-enemy-is-russia/
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Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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