Sunday, April 12, 2015

The test on Capitol Hill - Boaz Bismuth



by Boaz Bismuth

The problem is that Corker finds himself in a type of Catch-22. On the one hand, he wants an aggressive bill, strong enough to handcuff the administration. However, he needs to be flexible if he wants the support of his Democratic colleagues, to give the bill the number of votes required to override a presidential veto.


First Lausanne, now Washington: The nuclear deal with Iran isn't expected to fade from the headlines this week, mainly in the United States. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday will vote on a joint bill proposal put forth by Senators Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) and Bob Menendez (D-N.J.).

While the debate this week will be an internal American matter, the cynics in Washington say the Republican senator from Tennessee, who is also the committee chairman, intends to take just as hard a stand against the administration as the one taken by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. The problem is that Corker finds himself in a type of Catch-22. On the one hand, he wants an aggressive bill, strong enough to handcuff the administration. However, he needs to be flexible if he wants the support of his Democratic colleagues, to give the bill the number of votes required to override a presidential veto.

According to the bill, if a permanent deal between the West and Iran is signed by the June 30 deadline, it will have to first go through both houses of Congress for review. In this time frame -- 60 days -- the administration won't be able to lift the economic sanctions imposed on Iran -- not even partially.

Both the Senate and House will need to green light the removal of sanctions. The administration, suffice it to say, very much wants the bill to fail. It believes the bill will torpedo the deal, and that Iran likely won't agree to such a condition being attached. Obama has warned that in such a scenario the world will accuse the U.S. of ruining the deal. It would be a bit ironic if Obama hurdled the Iranian obstacle only to be stopped in his tracks by the American one. Iran, as a reminder, wants all sanctions lifted -- immediately. But Iran, for those who have forgotten, really just wants everything: no more sanctions; to join the family of nations; to upgrade its international and regional status; and if possible (it is), then also a nuclear bomb -- pretty please.

The lucky number (from the perspective of both the Republicans and the administration), is 67. That is the number that provides a two-thirds majority, which would allow the Senate to override a White House veto of the bill.

Senator Corker claims he is missing two to three votes to get to that number. As of today, all the Republican senators are expected to vote in favor, along with nine Democratic senators and one independent. The American press is reporting that maybe just four votes are missing. We can assume that if the required senators are found by Tuesday, then Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will call for a vote.

The White House is applying immense pressure on the Democrats. The two Democratic senators feeling the most heat are Ben Cardin from Maryland and Chuck Schumer from New York. Schumer, who normally holds very hawkish views when it comes to Israel's security, is expected to replace Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid. Schumer needs to choose between loyalty to the boss and loyalty to his principles. It is no simple matter. Cardin, too, is struggling to decide. He has also received phone calls from Obama.

It was clear a deal would be drafted in Lausanne, despite the last-minute games. It is also clear that on Tuesday the Senate Foreign Relations Committee will vote to pass the bill. The big question is what the bill will ultimately look like and how it will be softened to prevent the Democratic senators from getting cold feet. The ball is in Congress' court this week. Supporters of the deal with Iran have reason for concern.


Boaz Bismuth

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=12239

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

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