Thursday, October 9, 2014

A Message to Nasrallah - Dan Margalit



by Dan Margalit


Out of the north the evil will break forth, as expected. Hezbollah is keen. It has apparently lost over a thousand fighters battling in Syria, after coming to the aid of the unpopular Bashar Assad. 

Hezbollah is a natural enemy of the Islamic State group, which has supplanted it as the face of religious radicalism, and it sat by in almost complete silence during Operation Protective Edge as Israel was battering Hamas. Hassan Nasrallah's supporters expect more from him, something more violent. Therefore he has begun, with increasing frequency, answering the expectations of the extremists, but on a scope that will not drag him into a third Lebanon war. 

Over eight years after sparking the Second Lebanon War, Nasrallah himself should remember what he said when the war ended, that had he known what Israel's response would be in the Dahiyeh neighborhood of Beirut in southern Lebanon, he would not have abducted IDF reservists Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev. It's possible the passing years and his failures in other arenas have helped him forget the consequences of provoking Israel.

The IDF has noticed the growing restlessness in the north. When Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz toured the border area, it was not as part of their routine visits, but to gauge the atmosphere in the northern sector from up close. The shooting and wounding of a Lebanese soldier on Sunday has not been linked to the Tuesday's roadside bombings. The solider was searching for drug smugglers, mistakenly crossed the border and was wounded. Hezbollah, however, had an interest in causing friction, which it did yesterday by detonating the explosives it had set along the border fence a while ago. 

Israel believes it is highly unlikely Hezbollah wants to open another front against Israel right now. It is mired in a frustrating campaign alongside Assad, and its mission in Syria exceeds its capabilities. The recent fights in the Middle East, however -- from the Second Lebanon War in 2006 through all the flare-ups and operations in Gaza -- happened against the expectations of the leaders, apparently from both sides of the fence. 

Nasrallah does not want a war, but in July this was also believed to be true of Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Mashaal, yet the shooting spiraled out of control regardless. Not to mention that in the Middle East the words "quiet will be met with quiet" are perceived, not as a practical proposal in the spirit of compromise, but as a sign of weakness on the part of the side making the proposal. 

Under these conditions Nasrallah and his advisers may believe that Israel's ability to withstand another missile campaign is rather limited, and that following Protective Edge it will do whatever it can to prevent another conflagration. Such estimates, however, are always different than the final bill. 

Israel has no interest in another military campaign. It has even less of an interest though in a trickle of rockets, which includes the infamous roadside bombs from those days in the security zone in southern Lebanon. Israel also doesn't have another 50 days to spare while the situation gradually deteriorates like it did in Gaza. 

Quiet is preferable, but our patience is on a short a fuse. Hezbollah -- and the Lebanese government along with it -- need to take into account that Lebanon's ability to withstand an Israeli military onslaught is less than that of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, and that Israel will not allow its patience, nerves and restraint to be tested for very long. Not all escalations happen gradually, if, heaven forbid, the need for urgency is created.


Dan Margalit

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=10193

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

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